雅思阅读材料盘点：中美经济关系紧张

　　All this helps explain why Mr Trump has so far trod softly in confronting China. James McGregor, Greater China chairman of APCO Worldwide, a lobbying firm, says that American bosses have been streaming into Washington for meetings with the Trump team to appeal for calm and to teach them that “China is not a country to be toyed with.” But perhaps Mr Trump has merely been distracted by the rocky start to his domestic agenda and it is only a matter of time before he lashes out at China. If he does, though, he will soon learn that trade is not the only show in town. Investment gets much less attention but is also vital to the relationship.

　　鉴于以上原因，迄今为止特朗普应对中国时一直小心谨慎。游说机构安可顾问公司(APCO Worldwide)大中华区董事长詹姆斯·麦格雷戈(James McGregor)说，美国企业老板纷纷前往华盛顿与特朗普团队会晤，呼吁他们保持冷静，让他们明白“对待中国不可儿戏”。但特朗普也许只是在国内事务上开局不利，有些分心，对付中国是迟早的事。不过，如果特朗普真要开始瞄准中国，他很快就会知道，贸易并不是唯一影响双边关系的问题。投资问题受到的关注要少得多，但对两国关系同样至关重要。

　　Start with a myth—that China can bankrupt the American government. Over the past decade, China has invested more than $1trn in Treasuries. At its peak, America owed more money to China than to anywhere else. Pundits fret that, were China to dump its bonds, American interest rates would shoot up and the dollar plummet.

　　先从一个谬见说起，即认为中国能让美国政府破产。在过去十年中，中国投资美国国债超过一万亿美元。在高峰期，中国是美国最大的债权国。专家担心一旦中国抛售美国国债，美国利率会暴涨，美元则会暴跌。

　　But that is to misunderstand the financial mechanics. The Federal Reserve has demonstrated that it can buy far more government bonds than any foreign or domestic holder can sell. China thus cannot dictate interest rates in America, much less push it into penury. And the volatility of the dollar is also a Chinese concern. Because Chinese companies borrowed heavily abroad, dollar strength has made their debts more costly in yuan terms.

　　但这种判断误解了金融机制。美联储已经证明，不论国内外持有人抛售多少国债，美联储都有能力收购，财力绰绰有余。因此，中国无法左右美国利率，更不能把美国推向绝境。而美元的波动也会让中国担忧。因为中国企业在国外大量举债，美元走强会让这些债务以人民币计价的成本更加高昂。

　　Financial exposure goes the other way, too. Back in 2015 the Fed was planning to embark on a series of interest-rate increases. In the end it managed to deliver its second rise only at the very end of 2016. Jitters over China’s economy had stayed its hand. American investors have learned that news out of China can wreak havoc on their portfolios. Anxiety about China has triggered two of the three most recent “risk-off” episodes in global markets, as captured by the VIX, a measure of stock market volatility, popularly known as the “fear gauge”. This is the crucial point: it is not that China has the financial upper hand over America, or vice versa; it is that they are increasingly joined at the hip.

　　金融风险也是双向的。在2015年，美联储计划进行一系列加息，最终只在2016年底才完成了第二次加息，对中国经济的担忧让美联储放缓了加息。美国投资者明白了一个道理，中国的任何风吹草动都可能会重创其投资组合。VIX是股票市场的波动指标，即人们常说的“恐慌指数”，其数据显示，全球市场近期历经了三次大规模“风险规避”，其中两次都是出于对中国经济的焦虑。有一点至关重要：在金融领域，中国并不比美国更占上风，反之也是如此;实情是两国之间的联系日渐紧密，休戚与共。

　　Mutually assured destruction 一损俱损

　　And these are just the financial linkages, which remain limited by China’s capital controls. Look at the physical investment ties between China and America and the mutual vulnerabilities are even more glaring. According to official data, roughly 1% of the stock of American direct investment abroad (money spent on assets such as factories, warehouses and shops) is in China. But this misses much of the cash routed through the Cayman Islands or Hong Kong for accounting reasons. An analysis last year by the Rhodium Group, an American research firm, took a granular approach to calculate that the true stock of American foreign direct investment (FDI) in China built up from 1990 to 2015 was $228bn, three times the official figure.

　　这些还只是金融领域的联系，而这些联系仍然受到中国资本管制的限制。再看看中美之间的实际投资关系，双方相互依赖又相互威胁的情况则更为明显。官方数据显示，美国的对外直接投资存量(投资于工厂、仓库和商店等资产的资金)约1%在中国，但这个数据未包括因会计原因经由开曼群岛或香港流入中国的大部分资金。美国研究公司荣鼎集团(Rhodium Group)去年采用精细方法进行分析，结果显示在1990年至2015年间，美国在中国的对外直接投资存量实际为2280亿美元，是官方数字的三倍。

　　American companies initially lighted on China as a cheap manufacturing base; as costs there have risen, that wave of investment has tailed off. A new influx seeks to tap China’s consumer demand. In 2016 China was the leading emerging market into which American firms poured FDI. China’s booming middle class is forecast by McKinsey, a consultancy, to grow from just 6% of urban households in 2010 to over half of the total by 2020.

　　美国公司最初将中国作为廉价制造业基地来投资，随着中国生产成本的上升，这一轮投资大潮已近尾声。新一轮资本涌入中国，意在挖掘中国市场的消费需求。2016年，美国企业对外直接投资的首选新兴市场是中国。中国的中产阶级不断壮大，2010年，中产阶级仅占城镇家庭的6%，咨询公司麦肯锡预测，2020年这一数字将增长到一半以上。