雅思阅读材料盘点：中美经济关系紧张

　　For firms that have made it in China, the rewards have been immense. Through joint ventures with local partners, GM sells more cars, and makes more profits, in China than it does anywhere in the world. Over the next two decades, Boeing estimates, China will buy 6,000 new aero planes, becoming its first trillion-dollar market. Starbucks is opening new cafés in China at a pace of over one a day. On official estimates, some 1.6m people in China now work for American subsidiaries.

　　在中国获得成功的美国企业回报巨大。通过与当地合作伙伴合资经营，通用汽车在中国市场的汽车销量和盈利要好于在世界上任何其他地方。波音公司估计，在接下来的20年中，中国将购买6000架新飞机，成为波音首个万亿美元市场。星巴克在中国每天都新开设一家以上的连锁店。据官方估计，目前中国约有160万人就职于美国企业的子公司。

　　But success stories of American companies in China will not exactly warm the hearts of Mr Trump’s band of economic nationalists. What they want is money invested in America, not more profits made abroad. Forget for a moment that this policy risks doing more harm than good (preventing Apple or GM from going big in China would hurt them financially). The more relevant point—the one likelier to sway Mr Trump—is that the bigger investment flows these days are from China into America.

　　然而，美国公司尽管在中国获得了成功，却并不能让以特朗普为首的那班经济民族主义者回心转意。他们希望看到钱投资在美国，而不是在国外赚取更多的利润。先不管这一政策有可能弊大于利(阻止苹果或通用汽车在中国发展将有损它们的经济利益)，更重要、也更有可能改变特朗普心意的一点是，如今中国对美国的投资要多过美国对中国的投资。

　　Chinese investment into America used to be tiny. No longer (see chart 4). Rhodium estimates that it leapt from about $16bn in 2015 to some $46bn in 2016, compared with $13bn invested by American firms in China. Chinese investments are already thought to support roughly 90,000 American jobs across several dozen states. The money is spread across virtually every area of the economy. Chinese companies have bought Hollywood production companies, car-parts- and appliance-makers, semiconductor firms and more.

　　过去，中国对美国的投资规模很小。今非昔比(见图表4)。中国对美国的投资在2015年约为160亿美元，荣鼎集团估计，这一数字在2016年大幅上涨至约460亿美元，而美国企业在中国的投资仅为130亿美元。据信，中国的投资已经为几十个州的美国人带来了约九万个工作岗位。而且中国的投资几乎涉及所有经济领域。中国公司收购了好莱坞影视制作公司、汽车零部件企业、家电制造商以及半导体公司，不一而足。

　　China is well aware that its investors can also convey a positive message. Witness Jack Ma’s meeting with Mr Trump, just before his inauguration. Mr Ma, founder of Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce giant, boasted that his shopping portal would create 1m jobs in America, giving small businesses and farmers a platform to export to Asia. The promise was far-fetched (Mr Trump might appreciate that). But there was a kernel of truth: Chinese investors are only getting started in America.

　　中国很清楚其投资者也能传递一个积极的信息。看看马云在特朗普就职前和他进行的会面，这位中国电子商务巨头阿里巴巴的创始人夸口说，他的购物门户网站将在美国创造100万个就业机会，为小企业和农民提供出口亚洲的平台。这个承诺有些牵强(尽管特朗普可能很欣赏)，但有一点不假：中国投资者在美国才刚刚开始伸展拳脚。

　　Were it just a question of money, these investment trends ought to be the clincher, giving America and China every reason to stay on each other’s good side. But investment cannot be divorced from power, and that poses complications. Most obvious are national-security concerns. Both China and America have become more active in restricting each other’s technology and blocking deals that they fear might compromise their security.

　　如果一切仅仅是钱的问题，这些投资趋势就应该足以决定大局，让美国和中国都有充分的理由相互尊重对方的利益。但投资不能孤立于政治，而政治将局面复杂化了。这其中最明显的是国家安全问题，对于中美双方认为可能会损害各自国家安全的技术和交易，它们都已更积极地加以限制和阻碍。

　　But commercial competition casts an even bigger shadow. China and America are increasingly butting heads. “Made in China 2025”, an industrial plan unveiled in 2015, is indicative of how China is gunning for industries that America and other foreign countries have dominated. China aims to become a leader in ten strategic sectors, ranging from next-generation IT to agricultural machinery.

　　但商业竞争带来了更大的阴影，中美之间的角力日益激烈。“中国制造2025”是2015年发布的一项产业计划，表明中国力图在美国和其他国家主导的行业里奋起直追。在包括下一代IT和农业机械的十个战略领域里，中国都志在成为领导者。

　　Critics in America warn that China’s state-driven model for advancing in these industries will cause damage around the world. Their worry is that China will deploy much the same industrial policy that it has used in sectors from wind power to high-speed rail: pressure on foreign firms to share technology; protection of local firms; targets to phase out imports; and generous state funding. “This could lead not only to China taking over market share but, because of its scale, destroying entire business models,” says Scott Kennedy of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington, DC.

　　美国的批评家警告说，中国由国家推动这些行业发展的模式将在全球范围内造成破坏。中国在风力发电和高铁等多个行业里采用的产业政策是施压外国企业分享技术、保护本地企业、逐步替代进口，以及国家大力资助。他们担心中国继续沿用类似的策略。华盛顿特区的智库战略与国际研究中心(Centre for Strategic and International Studies)的斯科特·肯尼迪(Scott Kennedy)表示：“这不仅可能让中国获取市场份额，而且由于其规模巨大，还可能破坏整个商业模式。”

　　Another casus belli 另一条导火索

　　How America might respond to this perceived threat remains hazy. A committee recommended to Congress last year a ban on all investment in America by China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs)—a measure as likely to lead to a full-blown trade war as Mr Trump’s 45% tariff wall. A recent review of the semiconductor industry called for a stiffer response to China’s market distortions. Others argue that fears of “Made in China 2025” are overblown. Government interventions may work in industries such as solar power and railways, which are dominated by subsidies and public-sector procurement. But they have already been seen to fail in consumer industries such as carmaking.